15th Lok Sabha Elections : Final Countdown Begins

With the month-long Indian General Elections ending on Wednesday and the results of the 543 seats anticipated to be declared on16th May, every Indian is talking and curious about who (and with whom) will form the government. Indian newschannels as usual in order to cash-on this opportunity have come up with the exit-polls. Here's a breif analysis of which party stands where based on these exit polls --

Almost every news channel has predicted the formation of coaltion government at the centre with the Congress led UPA having a slender lead over the BJP led NDA. UPA is speculated to bag 190-200 seats, while NDA will have 180-185 seats in its kitty. The most important point to note is that the projections of fourth front (SP, RJD and LJP) are not included in the total tally of the UPA seats, which upon inclusion can reach upto 225-230 mark. The exit polls in India, however, have a mixed history. The exit polls in 2004 elections predicted a comprehensive NDA victory over Congress, but they were far from being accurate. Infact, I don't even remember when was the last time when the exit polls came close to the actual results and with 714 million registered voters, its logistically impossible for anyone. It feels as if exit polls are one of the many frivolous tamashas, which all these 24x7 news channels do in order to entice the Indian public towards their TV sets.

As per my perception, the key deciders in these elections are going to be Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Andhra Pradesh and the party or alliance garnering most number of seats in these states will have a major role to play in the government formation. Watch out for the big honchos of Congress & BJP trying to woo Madam Jayalalitha, Mayawati, and Nitish Kumar. Mamta Banerjee of TMC a.k.a Singur spearhead, is predicted to gravely dent the red bastion in West Bengal, leaving Karat & Co. to either sit in opposition or join hands with Congress reluctantly. Putting all the numbers in place, the formation of yet another hung parliament seems imminent and what is depressing is that the government will not be decided by elections but by back room deals & lucrative ministerial post offers. Given the nature of the nationalistic but regional parties, India may have another short-lived and unstable government and we can see another round of elections within a year or so.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that exit polls (as always) turn wrong and we can have a single party with a minimum outside support, in power. A government formed without any horse trading will be a win of the Indian voters in true sense.

-Kartavya Jain